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Retirement income runway

How long can retirement savings support the income gap you expect?

Your numbers

$
$
%

Runway

47 years

Annual withdrawal$45,000
Withdrawal as share of savings5.3%
Total withdrawn$2,115,000

Tip. Run a 3% return case as well as your base case. The pessimistic run is the one that changes decisions.

Assumptions

  • Withdrawal comes out at the start of each year; growth applies to what is left.
  • A flat return every year. Real markets vary, and a bad first decade shortens the runway more than the average return suggests.
  • Withdrawal amount stays flat in nominal dollars, so inflation is not modeled.
  • Ignores taxes, fees, Social Security, and other income.

Sources

  • Trinity study (1998) and later withdrawal-rate research

Explore the numbers

Examples and charts

Start with a scenario, then read the response curve to see which input actually moves the answer.

Example 1

Conservative withdrawal

About 4% of the balance a year, the level most rules of thumb are built around.

Runway

Over 120 years

Example 2

Base case

A slightly higher draw on the same balance and return.

Runway

47 years

Example 3

Weak-market stress test

The same withdrawal with returns cut to 3%, which shortens the runway sharply.

Runway

27 years

Sweeps annual withdrawal need from half to one and a half times your value, holding everything else fixed.

Response curve

How annual withdrawal need moves the result

Runway

47 years

20 yr40 yr60 yr80 yr100 yr120 yr$30k$40k$50k$60k
Chart axis: Annual withdrawal needNow $45k47 yr

What this calculates

Estimates how many years a portfolio lasts while you withdraw a fixed amount each year and the remainder keeps growing. Useful for testing whether a target balance and a target lifestyle fit together.

How to use it

  1. Start with retirement savings and work down the form, or load an example to begin from a realistic case.
  2. Read the headline result alongside the supporting rows, which show the intermediate figures behind it.
  3. Check the assumptions. They decide what the number includes and, more importantly, what it leaves out.
  4. Sweep annual withdrawal need on the response curve to see how much it actually moves the answer.
  5. Run a cautious case as well as an optimistic one before using the estimate in a decision.

Common mistakes

  • Ignoring tax on withdrawals from pre-tax accounts, which makes the gross withdrawal larger than the spending it funds.
  • Entering total spending instead of the shortfall left after other income.
  • Running only the optimistic return.

Formula

Each year: balance ← (balance − withdrawal) × (1 + return), until the balance is gone

Inputs

  • Retirement savings
  • Annual withdrawal need
  • Expected annual return (%)

FAQ

Is this the 4% rule?

It is the same family of idea, but here you choose the withdrawal and the return explicitly and read the years back. The 4% guideline bakes in assumptions this page makes you state.

Why is a flat return optimistic?

Because real returns arrive in an order. A poor first few years, while you are also withdrawing, permanently shrinks the base that later growth compounds on. This is called sequence risk and a flat average hides it.

Does the withdrawal keep pace with inflation?

No. It stays flat in nominal dollars, so the real spending it supports falls every year. To approximate inflation, subtract your expected inflation rate from the return you enter.

Should I subtract Social Security or a pension?

Yes. Enter only the gap your portfolio has to cover, which is your spending minus any guaranteed income.

How long will my retirement savings last?

It depends on the withdrawal rate and the returns you actually get. At a 4% withdrawal with average returns, a balanced portfolio has historically lasted 30 years in most scenarios, and this calculator lets you test your own numbers.

How much do I need to retire at 60?

Work backwards from annual spending. At a 4% withdrawal rate, multiply annual spending by 25; spending $60,000 a year suggests about $1.5 million before counting other income like Social Security.

What is a safe withdrawal rate in retirement?

Many planners use 3 to 4% of the starting balance as a conservative range. A lower rate raises the odds your money lasts 30 years, and flexible spending helps more than any single rate.

Are these numbers financial advice?

No. They are educational estimates based on the inputs and assumptions on this page. Confirm important decisions with a qualified professional and your own documents.

Read the full guideRetirement runway: how long will your savings last

The questions people usually ask next.